According to a vehicle population report released in February 2007 by R.L. Polk, the automotive research firm, the median age of passenger cars on the road today is 9.2 years, a record high.

With so many older cars on the road, can replacement demand be far off?

Just five years ago, the median age of passenger cars in operation was 8.3 years.

For trucks, the median age increased from 6.8 in 2005 to 6.9 years in 2006.  In 2001, the median truck age was 6.8 years.  Light truck median age increased by 3.0 percent to 6.8 years, the largest increase across the major vehicle categories.

The scrappage rate of vehicles is now at an historic low.  In 2006, the scrappage rate was 4.9% for  passenger cars; in 2001, the rate was 6.0%.  In 1970, the scappage rate was 9.5%.

Dave Goebel, a consultant for Polk’s Aftermarket Solutions says that, “This is more evidence that vehicle engineering and durability continues to improve with each new model year.”

Source: http://usa.polk.com/News/LatestNews/2007_0215_veh_longevity.htm